Therefore, given an event and a set of hypotheses about how that event came to be, probability dictates you are most likely to be right if you embrace the one that involves the fewest random events and the least expenditure of energy by Nature. If the rock is no longer where it was, it is more likely to have fallen down the cliff during a rainstorm than to have rolled further up the hill in dry weather. It isn't always true - perhaps a monkey got loose from the zoo, wandered by, and carried the rock up to kill a bug for lunch - but it's the safer bet, especially during the stormy season. If you want the best chance at being right, betting on the safer bet's generally a good way to go about it.

"Robbins’s claim fails because the Hobbs Act does not apply when the National Government is the intended beneficiary of the allegedly extortionate acts."